Round 4

[daniel]

Post your thoughts below! 

[currently reigning kilby]

molly is SO impressive

[Charity]

Okay, so we are approaching the swap of this game... and all three tribes are experiencing minor cracks as a result of this twist. I LOVE IT! Let's get into predictions for this final preswap round.


Maraamu -

This tribe has the most straightforward dynamic in terms of targets/dynamic. If Maraamu were to lose this final preswap round, Willow would be 1000% in hot water and I don't see a world where anyone else leaves. Since the start of the game, Robert/Angelica have done a great job remaining at the top of their tribe. Last round, Robert proved to be the stronger overall player though because he singlehandedly flipped the script on Gabby when Angelica began the round targeting Willow. Genki and Rocky have both individually done a great job working their way into a solid middle spot on their tribe. Rocky specifically was aggressive making group chats with the right people, and keeping Robert close enough to convince Robert that he was trustworthy. Niki is by default safe to her strategic bargaining of information, informing both Robert and Angelica about her idol. She is also doing a great job coming off as trustworthy to everyone. Willow is on the bottom of this tribe because people misinterpret her niceness for fakeness, she hasn't been as aggressive to make alliances or talk game, her last challenge performance also rubbed people the wrong way.

Koror -

On this tribe, Bridget/Kevin are clearly on the bottom but things appear to be shifting towards Kevin being in hot water. Kevin made a few crucial mistakes that have turned his tribe on him, including telling Bridget too much information (he told her that she was a target), telling Trey that he wants an alliance with him/Trey/Bridget (which puts the core 4 on this tribe in danger by default), and telling people like Molly and Olivia that he hasn't found his "person" on this tribe... making them worry that he would flip in a swap. Olivia/Molly/Chris/Robbie are convinced that they can fool Bridget into believing she was never on the bottom, making Kevin the target by default. Olivia is absolutely WILD! Not only did her/Chris discuss throwing the challenge to take Kevin off, but overall she's just been 10000x paranoid as everyone else around her. While not all of her reads have been accurate, she has still done a great job solidifying herself in the core. While Robbie is still playing the strongest overall game, Chris/Molly have done a great job maintaining a solid social game and Trey has done a good job bargaining information and using it when it benefits him the most. Overall, it's safe to say that Olivia/Chris/Trey/Molly/Robbie will make the swap, and Kevin will leave with the backup being Bridget.


Aparri -

Last round, the vote was between Kaitlyn and Suzi... and I was not stoked to see either in hot water So glad the newbie-strategist Kaitlyn was able to survive last round. Kaitlyn is likable, smart, but got caught up with the wrong crowd which severely hurt her game. Can she survive until the swap though? I'm really not sure.... For me, it's safe to say that Kyle, Michael, and Nikki have made the swap - I also don't see a world where Sam leaves prior to the swap. Michael has done an amazing job running this tribe and pushing his agenda round after round, and while I have always viewed Kyle as his right hand man I do think he slipped a lot last round due to his indecisiveness with the vote. He told people he wanted whatever they wanted, and didn't really push an agenda. This didn't hurt his spot on the tribe, but it was a slip in terms of strategic gameplay. Nikki was aggressive about wanting Kaitlyn out, but due to her lack of power this didn't do much... safe to say she's safe though do to her straightforward approach. Sam continues to be a reliable ally for the power players, but is not a power player on this tribe. If this tribe wants to go with the easy vote, they will do Kaitlyn. The other person I could see being in hot water this round, however, is Jordan. Jordan has done nothing wrong, has been pretty upfront, and has done a good job laying low. Jordan's downfall, however, could be rooted in the fact that Michael thinks he comes off as shady, Jordan gives off "indecisive vibes," which could hurt his trustworthiness in a swap, and finally Jordan comes off as slightly inactive at times. If this tribe were to lose, there's a 99% chance that Kaitlyn or Jordan leaves.

[jennyautumn]

Just a few quick thoughts as round 4 ramps up...

Aparri
This tribe is so fuckin' awkward (IMO). I feel like there is no recovering from their messy first two rounds and they just don't have a cohesive energy. Look no further than the weird waffling/inactivity prior to the Suzi vote. It seemed like no one even wanted to make that move and the whole vibe that evening seemed very off. Michael is essentially running the tribe but his paranoia and itchy trigger finger makes me think he's on a path to make a fatal (or near fatal) error soon. Kyle is doing a good job of being Michael's trusted confidant and letting him be the more strategically vocal player. I do think Kyle could have done more to try to make the move he wanted -- which was Jordan. I think Kyle saw that Suzi was someone he was growing a relationship with and the issue with Jordan is that I just don't see him connecting naturally with anyone on this tribe. The tribe itself has a really weird energy, but Jordan especially feels like he doesn't fit in. I'm hoping that if this tribe goes again, Kyle and Michael both decide that Kaitlyn has more utility for their longer game than Jordan. I feel so bad for Kaitlyn -- watching her confessionals is so relatable to me and she reminds me of what I think I would be like if I played an ORG at 18. She is such an empathetic and kind person and she tried to play hard and it burned her. I'm hoping she gets a true second shot in this game -- Kyle and Michael should see how loyal she was to Logan and try to become her new Logan. I am very eager to see what becomes of this tribe in a swap. Michael especially is bored and has been complaining a lot.


Koror
Last round was a rollercoaster, starting off with a "Save Bridget" campaign that started to pick up steam, only to be halted in its tracks when Kevin and Bridget started to do/say too much, which turned off Queen Olivia who wants control and for everyone to keep quiet and follow mindlessly. Once Olivia caught wind that Kevin told Bridget she was in trouble but wanted to save her, things started to unravel. Robbie and Olivia remain the power duo that's got the most influence on this tribe. Robbie's game has the edge because he is so much calmer and of course, that idol. Olivia does have a lot of power but some of her reads are still off and she is pretty erratic -- but she is the female villain giving me LIFE. Trey was in a bad position for a bit, but his separation from/ratting on Kevin quickly changed that. Kevin waited a week in the game to commit to a number one ally and chose the person on the bottom who he needed to fight for. Unfortunately this has just made his position in the game even more precarious. His work to try to protect Bridget from the bottom may have put him in her spot. I really like Kevin and think he will learn from his mistakes here, but he's unfortunately done too much too late. The Kor-four pairs of Robbie/Olivia and Chris/Molly run this tribe, with Trey making his way back up to #5 after almost being sacrificed to protect Bridget. If this tribe evades tribal again, I think things will start to get messy once they swap.


Maraamu
Robert is the king of this tribe. Basically everyone considers him their #1 and he was the driving force to flip the vote back to Gabby last round. I could see this coming back to bite him later if people start comparing notes, but as of right now he is in the power position of this tribe. The good news is that in a swap, no matter who he gets swapped with from Maraamu, he'll have a ride or die, since the whole tribe loves him lmao. Angelica is also doing an incredible job and stands a top the tribe with Robert, edged out only by the fact that people seem to mention closeness with Robert more than her. My worry for Angelica is a bad swap where she ends up in a minority. Niki is in a great mid-tier spot as one of Rob & Angelica's many third wheels, but she has the idol and both R&A know it and feel safer with her because of this. She has been reliable and trustworthy. Rocky and Genki is a pair I want to see get tighter - I want a different power pair to emerge from this tribe and these 2 were on the same page about wanting to keep Gabby, but ultimately were smart to not rock the boat too much. Sadly, if this tribe votes again, it'll be Willow. The trend has been that the decoy vote is the one on the bottom, so it will be interesting to see who Willow is told to vote for if they go to tribal again.

[sid]

Sid's hot takes for Koror

Robbie - wowwee 10/10 hot stuff

Olivia - Queen is all I can say your chaotic energy gives me life and your paranoia is the only entropy generating source on this tribe

Chris- Slow started but solidly number three now due to everybody else being newbies and not playing hard enough.

Molly - Wow oh wow. Roped into number 4 spot and is super close with Chris.

Trey - Wowwee you gave me ulcers when you said your "best move" was to not talk game. I was actually deceased. I'm glad you're off that train now but you still need to play harder buckaroo. Ratting out Kevin has been one of your better moves because it solidified your position from sketchy Mr. mcidol holder to trustworthy information broker. Olivia, your ride or die has the idol back the fuck up.

Bridget - In your inactivity your stock has been on the rise. The fact that you know nothing is actually helping you because you can't blunder if you know nothing.

Kevin - Your attachment to Bridget has been your downfall. You haven't been messy persay but you rocked the boat too much trying to save an ally and fell out yourself oop. Then when Trey threw you under the bus game over. Most likely Kevin vote for round 4 if they lose but Bridget still could be out.

[dara]

My ratings (out of 5 🦴's)

Maraamu

Robert - 🦴🦴🦴🦴🦴
Angelica - 🦴🦴🦴🦴🦴
Rocky - 🦴🦴🦴🦴
Niki - 🦴🦴🦴
Genki - 🦴🦴
Willow - 🦴

Koror 
Molly - 🦴🦴🦴🦴🦴
Olivia - 🦴🦴🦴🦴
Chris - 🦴🦴🦴🦴
Robbie - 🦴🦴🦴
Trey - 🦴🦴
Kevin - 🦴
Bridget - 🦴

Apparri 
Kyle - 🦴🦴🦴🦴🦴
Brady - 🦴🦴🦴🦴🦴
Nikki - 🦴🦴🦴🦴🦴
Samantha - 🦴🦴🦴
Jordan - 🦴🦴
Kaitlyn - 🦴

[jordan]

I've loved taking in so much content this season, but it's made it a bit difficult to sum up my thoughts with so many opinions and sides to take in...but here's some thoughts on the players up to round 4 right before a possible shake-up.

Koror

Olivia- She's operating like she's in the driver's seat when in reality she's not, but still in a good spot in the car...but we all know Robbie is driving this vehicle. Olivia could most certainly be the one doing the driving, but her slightly off reads (Trey does not have the idol, actually) and her devotion to Robbie (Honestly not a terrible thing for her game) have put her in a solid alliance spot, but not the true decision maker. Though she does have influence. She wanted to throw this challenge and while I don't think she blatantly did, they did still lose. Earlier confessionals she wanted Bridget gone, but now sounds like she wants Kevin to pay the price for saying too much and not showing true allegiance to the power alliance. Olivia is fun to watch, she is devious in her confessionals, but mostly sweet in her tribe interactions.

Chris- He's playing exactly the game I expected pre-season and people don't seem to be worried. They absolutely should, don't let this guy get traction! But here he is, in a solid alliance. It will be interesting if he has to change up his game in a swap where people may know more about what he is capable of.

Molly- I love that she's subtly pushing for Bridget to stay over Kevin. She sees how Kevin is more likely to make moves without communicating to them, whereas so far, Bridget has come back to them with info. Molly is in a good spot, people like her. Although some people on her tribe have been nitpicky about her availability. She's glad Suzi was voted off since she compares her to a 'mob boss' and she informs her tribe she won't flip with other sequester people...but she thinks they will trust her and bring her info. I hope Molly doesn't just give all the info she gets...Hold some for yourself, Molly! You deserve it!

Bridget- Being a Bridget fan is a lot of ups and downs...But I am so glad she's still here! Some days she seems solidly safe, then the next someone screws up and somehow the target is back on Bridget! But as of now, it seems like the majority alliance wants her to stay over Kevin. So if that's the price we have to pay to get more Bridget in the game...take Kevin and leave us in peace with our Bridget fandom!


Trey- I'm impressed that he has been able to navigate this well. He didn't sink his game by getting too attached to Jessica and he has been proactive to try to get into the majority alliance. He realizes where the pieces are and he threw Kevin under the bus to make sure he wasn't next or even second in line. He does have some people worried he has an idol, but in this case it is keeping him safe...Although in the future, if Robbie doesn't play his and people talk in a swap...other players may target Trey for the rumored idol that he doesn't have.


Robbie- He's been in a solid position all game and shows that he understands the basics of the game and how to manage and work on building relationships. He's got an idol that no one knows about (I love that he is able to keep a secret! Too many people in ORGs talk and idols lose power). I think Robbie is for sure making merge. Even in a bad swap, he can navigate and he has back-up in his idol.


Kevin- I wanted Kevin to succeed. I wanted him to actually be Robbie's number one. But it's a lot to expect from someone in their first game. I think Kevin has shown he wants to play and it's sad to see him targeted for it. I love that he was doing this to try to help Bridget stay safe (even though she was originally wanting to target him the first few rounds of the game). It's not set in stone that he is gone this round...but it's not looking good for him.

Maraamu

While Willow looks like she would have been in trouble if they lost, based on what I watched and heard...it would have been Genki. People are still annoyed with Willow's challenge performances and even her general cluelessness and helplessness with tribe games. They all know now it can't be an act, so players are looking at her as someone who will be loyal to them, but not surpass them in the game. Rocky wants a trio with her and Robbie, so she will be more loyal to them. Willow is already in a four with Robbie, Angelica, and Niki. Angelica even tells Niki, "We didn't put that much work into sending Gabby out over Willow, just to let her go next." People are worried that Genki will have other connections in a swap and that he won't be as loyal to them. The Rocky and Robbie relationship has really blossomed too. While Niki is now closer to Angelica than Robbie. Yet Robbie and Angelica still hold all the power on this tribe. I don't think both will survive the swap though and I think Angelica might have a harder time. So we shall see.

Aparri

So apparently Jordan was back as a possible target if they lost...but they didn't. Still not thrilled that Suzi left. I like watching M. Brady play and I think his dynamic with Kyle is fun. I hope Samantha can really thrive in a swap to make new allies because I don't see the boys being loyal to her long term. Kaitlyn came to play and glad she still has a chance. Nikki and Niki need to end up together so I can go back to using Double K. Also Jordan needs to go next or he will surpass me and I will be the worst placing Jordan in All Out...no thanks!