Round 8 - SECOND SWAP

[Charity]

Thoughts go here!

[dara]

Time to find out who is in






And that would be...





Yes the entire swapped Maraamu tribe! Robert seems to like dogs. They voted him out, this is obviously related, they hate dogs. 

[jordan]

Initial thoughts on the second swap...

Vanua

1.) Michael, Kaitlyn, and Trey together after the Robert blindsided!!! But no Bridget

2.) Three original Koror and three original Apari... with Willow as a swing!

3.) Molly better sing swapped screwed again...for herself

4.) Brady said Kyle was no longer his number 1 and that Kaitlyn was...will Kyle sense that?

5.) The fact that Koror tried to collaborate to make M.Brady rank low..they messed up big time

6.) Let's see Chris be the first boot from this tribe

Rarotonga

1.)Once again I feel Bridget is in a precarious situation😬

2.)Bridget just blindsided Genki and is the only one there to take the heat...plus Genki can tell Robbie and Olivia that Bridget wasn't planning to be loyal to them based on her comments at the last tribal.

3.)Genki might turn Angelica against Bridget...you don't want to be on her bad side... she's going to be pissed that Robert is gone.

4.)What the hell is Jordan still doing here and will he be more loyal to Nikki or Robbie?!?

5.)I really want Olivia and Nikki to stick together...but I have my doubts Olivia doesn't run back to Robbie

6.)Would Robbie ever play his idol for Olivia or Bridget if they thought a Koror was going to get the votes...we can only hope, but probably not

[Charity]

I told everyone to send me thoughts of their new tribe, in their production chat, and this is what I got from the people who responded (copied and pasted) -

RAROTONGA- 

Olivia: 

***Sent voice messages, long story short she does not want her/Robbie to leave but doesn’t care about anyone else.***

Robbie:

Ummmm....I'm still figuring it out. As of right now, I'm an equal opportunist, but I will be working with Bridget and helping her make jury. I will also be working with Olivia. The rest I'm still debating, but part of me instantly wants to target Genki or Jordan...

I've voted out enough women in this game. Makes me sick. 

Time to get some of these dudes outta here. 

Also want to lower the number of people. Chris and Molly can turn to. 

Genki: 

My first impressions: 

Angelica: Queen

Bridget: not a queen, she can go

Nikki: threatening but I believe she wants to work with me for at least the first round of this swap

Robbie: love him already

Jordan and olivia: whomst

VANUA-

Molly:

I'M SCREWED ON THIS TRIBE

MICHAEL SCARES ME

I LOVE KAITLYN AND WILLOW. THEY SEEM AMAZING. BUT THEY ALSO SEEM SMART GOSH DARN IT. AND THE SMART MOVE HERE IS TO GET RID OF ME. Good thing I know how to give young people an ego boost. Like literally Kaitlyn is the same age as my students.

How in the world are Chris and I going to survive this tribe?

Literally if any single other person from the other tribe was on this tribe I'd be fine. This is actually probably the worst possible combination of people for my game. 

Trey: 

I wanna keep working w/ Michael bc we established a good working relationship last swap. By extension I'll also work w/ Kaitlyn. The other Korors are fine, but I haven't had a chance to work closely with Chris or Molly tbh. I'd rather work w/ Michael & Kaitlyn behind the scenes while other Koror & Aparri members battle each other for control of the vote. In terms of the people I haven't met yet, I like Willow more than Kyle, but it's just first impressions. Excited to see how this phase goes! 

Kaitlyn:

I think this is a great tribe. My one concern is there are 3 original korror and 3 original aparri, which leaves one marramu who could be a swing. I’m concerned about the three and three with a swing to be honest, could go one of multiple ways. I want to work with Michael and Kyle again, trey as well, and actually everyone seems great. I don’t know anyone else really yet but I’m working on it.

[Charity]

SECOND SWAP UPDATES PT 1 (from everything I've learned)

First of all... love the dynamics of these two tribes!! On Rarotonga, we have 3 OG Koror, 2 OG Aparri, and 2 OG Maraamu. On swapped Vanua, we have 3 OG Koror, 2 OG Aparri, and 2 OG Maraamu. As a tribe that has the most numbers overall in this game, it's nice to see that OG Koror doesn't have a clear majority. I do believe, however, on Rarotonga things could go either way. Vanua seems pretty clear cut if current assumptions are followed through with... so below I've posted an update for each player!

Vanua - 

As the most experienced of the OG Korors, you'd think that Chris realizes more than anyone that he is in danger this round. If you consider the fact that Trey has relationships with both Michael and Kaitlyn, Chris has a 50/50 shot at being the first boot this round (assuming Willow sticks with Kyle). So far, Chris has tried to have 1 on 1 calls with most of the tribe, but in 1 on 1 convos that others have had with each other it seems like Chris doesn't give people much information when it comes to the game. Prior to the swap, Chris had emphasized that he feels that a Koror will leave this round if people are playing with their heads. But in Chris's call with Molly, he emphasized to Molly how they needed to flip Willow and keep all the yellows together. He either did this because A. He genuinely thinks they have the skill to flip Willow or B. He knows this is impossible but he wants Molly to focus on the wrong things. I am unclear where Chris's head is at right now in terms of being in self-preservation mode, but I am curious to see how he plays things once the break ends.

Seems to be in a pretty good spot, but his spot is not as good as it was on swapped Aparri. Right now, he has the relationship with Willow - whom seems to be the swing vote for this coming vote. Kyle also has a working relationship with Michael and Kaitlyn. The piece that puts him in a semi-weird spot is Trey. We know that Trey's relationship with Michael/Kaitlyn will make it hard for him to vote them out (leaving Kyle as the only option), but we also know Chris/Molly's fixation will be on appeasing Willow by voting one of those two. My prediction is that Trey will attempt and push a Kyle vote, but that it won't gain any traction. This is also likely the piece that swings this game into a battle where OG Aparri will win. Kyle is not doing the best job at making his agenda clear to anyone, even Michael who used to be his number 1, so I'm hoping this doesn't hurt him. I predict that Kyle will open up more as TC approaches.



Very solid positioning as far as I can tell. It seems that she's won the paranoid mastermind Michael Brady over. In fact, I think Kaitlyn takes Kyle's and Nikki's spot as potential #1 status.. which is a huge deal for someone who was left out of the first vote on that tribe. Both Kyle and Nikki informed Willow prior to the swap that Kaitlyn was someone Willow would get along with, so it appears as if Willow is approaching this relationship with genuine enthusiasm - she's excited to be on a tribe with Kaitlyn. Kaitlyn and Willow both have a lot in common so I see this bond growing into something that could be powerful in the merge. Chris/Molly acknowledged how Kaitlyn was somewhat on the outs on OG Aparri, so I do not see them going for her either. Aside from Willow, I see Kaitlyn as super safe on this tribe. I hope she takes this time to focus on developing bonds she can use in merge.




As the paranoid genius of this game, I am both shocked and impressed that Michael has made it so far in this game. He consistently starts out as a potential target, then he has a 1 on 1 call with the crucial swing votes and they magically trust him? It's crazy! I believe that Michael is the individual Chris/Molly will try to get the vote on - due to the call they had on Wednesday. Unfortunately for them, however, Michael has a working relationship with Kyle from OG Aparri, a ride or die relationship with Kaitlyn that blossomed on swapped Maraamu, and a solid alliance with Trey... who is part of the Koror 3!! Michael could be targeted if he lets his paranoia get to his head, but I think he's covered from all sides at this point. Despite his solid gameplay so far, Michael's challenge will likely begin at merge because Olivia and Robbie both want to see his head on a platter.




Overall, Molly's newbie energy and enthusiasm for the game has been super fun to watch. Because of how her OG and swapped tribe worked out, however, Molly is in danger on this tribe. Her only working relationship on this tribe is Chris!! Aka.. Molly is starting from square one. Molly's only saving grace at this point is her likability and activity level. Unfortunately for Molly, however, it seems that she does not realize how bad her situation is. Based on her call with Chris, Molly seems to be under the impression that they can just swoop Willow up and things will be okay. What Molly fails to see, however, is that A. Willow has a relationship with Kyle, B. It just doesn't make sense for Willow to side with them (she discussed w/Chris strong arming Willow to side with them.. which is SO BAD), and C. Trey has a relationship with Michael/Kaitlyn. Molly seems to be unaware of how strong the swap relationships are for everyone else because she had such a boring swap.. she really just needs to lose Chris at this point so she can see that the game isn't what she's perceiving. From there, she can play from the actual bottom instead of the perceived top and actually make progress in this game.



Great positioning overall!! Realistically, Trey should make it to merge. He has the privilege of having relationships with OG Koror, but he also has solid relationships with both Kaitlyn/Michael. I believe if Willow/Kyle even tease targeting Trey, that Michael/Kaitlyn will shoot it down. Trey has a bit of a dilemma this round, because I don't think he realizes that Molly/Chris are likely going to push Michael to leave. Trey seems to want to keep relationships with both sides open, meaning he won't want any of Molly/Chris/Michael/Kaitlyn to leave. I don't see a world where Trey gets his ideal boot, so I'm curious to see if he votes with Koror knowing it'll fail (to save face with the surviving member) or if he'll vote with Michael outright. Regardless, I think if he HAD to pick a side he'd pick the Michael side...but he's going to fight to make sure a choice doesn't happen.



Swing vote queen Willow has arrived! I say swing vote, but based on calls alone I believe she sides with Kyle/OG Aparri. She has told Michael/Kaitlyn that she wants to work with them, but has not told this to the OG Koror members. Despite this, however, OG Koror is still living in a delusion where Willow's vote can be won over. Willow is not a strategic mastermind in any sense of the word, but seeing her in such a high position compared to OG Maraamu seems like Karma and justice coming through 0.1% chance Willow finds herself in trouble on this tribe, but I hope she continues to be herself so people wanna work with her at merge.

POWER RANKINGS


1. Willow
2. Kaitlyn
3-5. Trey/Michael/Kyle
6-7. Chris/Molly

[Charity]

Now let's discuss Rarotonga...

This tribe dynamic feels a lot more complicated than Vanua. The problem with this tribe is that I have yet to see any evidence that Nikki/Jordan/Angelica/Genki want to work together on this vote. Nikki is the strongest advocate for these 4 working together, but there is lack of commitment from the other 3.. let's dive into the individual dynamic -

WHAT A NON-COHESIVE MESS!!!



Angelica is definitely in a better position on this tribe than her swapped tribe. In fact, I don't see a world where she becomes the vote either this round or next round. Angelica is the closest to Genki, and confided in Genki that she feels like Nikki is large and in charge which worries her, but she's also not interested in working with OG Koror (though she expressed really liking Robbie). Angelica seems to have Nikki as an option despite her fear and has expressed to Nikki that Koror is the threat on this tribe... I believe she could follow this train of thought going into TC. I don't believe OG Maraamu or Aparri are going to have the same criteria for this vote, however, and Angelica being a stubborn player could hurt the ability for a solid majority to form on this tribe.



Bridget on paper appears like she'd be in trouble on this tribe, but I'm not so sure if this is actually the case? While Olivia has expressed lack of care in regard to Bridget's game, Robbie seems interested in getting her to merge. On top of that, Nikki does not want to target Bridget due to her being perceivably on the bottom of OG Koror. Bridget's biggest battle at this point is the fact that Genki has no interest in working with her, due to the dynamic of the swapped Maraamu tribe. She COULD fall victim on this tribe to a compromise vote... but it's not set in stone.



Genki is in a very very weird spot on this tribe. Obviously Angelica wants to work with him, and Nikki wants to work with him due to him not being an OG Koror. Genki is very strongly in favor of saving Robbie (against Nikki's wishes) due to Robbie and him being the only POC left in the game.. but I'm not sure if Robbie shares that same sentiment due to Robbie saying he does not want to vote a woman out of this tribe (and actively wants to target Jordan or Genki). I believe if Robbie pushes for Genki, then Genki will have an easy option in siding with Aparri. If Robbie targets Jordan, however, then I am really lost on who Genki will eventually side with.



Jordan benefits from having Robbie as a past number to a degree... but it also seems like Robbie no longer cares for Jordan? It also appears as if Nikki wants to pull him into the 4 against OG Koror. If tribal lines are the main factor that goes into this vote, then Jordan remains safe by default. Jordan's trouble comes if he doesn't form a solid relationship with Angelica or Genki... they could see him as a compromise vote with the excuse "we voted the least active member out." Jordan seems to think he's in a power position, and I think he COULD be if he plays his cards right, I am just not seeing that level of effort at this time (but it's a break so Jordan still has time).



As somebody who was just ranked on the bottom, Nikki SHOULD be okay. She is very straightforward and social, and has been the most aggressive about OG Maraamu and Aparri working together. Nikki's only obstacle is going to be if A. Any plan she forms leaks... and she becomes the victim of Robbie's idol or B. She continues to make her threat level so obvious that everyone turns on her. Angelica is already wary of Nikki, but might work with her out of necessity. Having people want to work with you out of necessity is never the position you wanna be in. If she survives the swap, I predict she'll be out before F8 sadly.



Olivia is somebody who had everything line up in her favor to be dominant, but she's not doing the best job maintaining her juggling act. While Robbie, the man with the idol, 1000% has Olivia's back, nobody else trusts her. Angelica and Genki have both acknowledged that Olivia gives them nothing, and Nikki was hugely in favor of voting Olivia out of the swapped Aparri tribe. Olivia realistically needed to give a little more about the OG Koror dynamic to make people trust her.. but she's not doing it. She's very much in danger if she doesn't put in the work to show people "Hey! I have all these connections but I'm really with you."



Robbie is another person in a weird spot. Despite his desire to get either Genki or Jordan out, both see him as viable options in this game. If he gets caught being two faced with them, he's done for. Angelica also likes Robbie, and Olivia is ride or die with Robbie. On paper, Robbie is the clear ringleader of OG Koror and should be leaving. Nikki has even stated that she thinks Robbie should leave, I just don't see people agreeing with her. On top of this, Robbie has a nice safety net with his idol. I don't think Robbie can win at this point due to being such an obvious threat, but I'm excited to see how he attempts to escape this precarious tribe situation.

Power Rankings (had a hard time with this) -

1. Angelica/Genki (?)
2. Nikki/Robbie
3. Olivia/Bridget
4. Jordan... though this bottom ranking doesn't mean he'd go home LOL

[devon]

"Fuck off Icarus you got caught in ur bs" -Bridget to Genki, referencing Robert

Meant to post this earlier, but such a good quote

[dara]

Time for another addition of 





This time, the person in the dog house is:





Didn't even finish eating in the food challenge. Can you imagine not finishing food? Seems crazy to me. 

[dara]

Rooting for Willow.

[Charity]

We have some pretty important updates since my last write ups - here they are!

Rarotonga -

It appears as if Bridget could be in hot water tonight, with Nikki as the person the other side is pushing. Nikki/Jordan seem to have settled on a Bridget vote, and Genki/Angelica seem to be on the same page in wanting a Koror out. Since Genki likes Robbie and Angelica has a relationship with Olivia, this puts Bridget as the ideal vote in their minds as well. Robbie/Olivia continue to be greedy and try to push their agenda, which is for Nikki to go, but they fail to realize that people aren't going to bend and do a move that's against their better interest. I do believe that Angelica/Genki are going to try and convince Robbie/Olivia to do Bridget instead of going with a #blindside. The question becomes then... will Robbie idol Bridget or will Robbie let Bridget go? I guess we'll see tonight.

Vanua -

Chris's game is pretty much dead at this point. He made the mistake of telling Trey something along the lines of they could lie about Michael to Willow in order for Willow to target Michael. I read this message as half serious half a crazy suggestion/joke that Chris wouldn't do, but regardless Trey has sprinted to Michael and exposed all of Chris's antics. Chris also made the mistake of suggesting to Michael that they should work together and get Trey out (which seemed to be Chris's actual plan at the time). These two very conflicting stories have made Chris look shady, and if they go to TC Chris is going home. Chris is sure that his performance in the food eating challenge means death for his game, but that's not the case since Vanua won by at least 12 minutes. Chris's only hope for survival is winning out till merge, but even then I don't feel like he's got the stock to make it much further. Let's hold his funeral now.