Round 10 - MERGE

[Charity]

Post merge thoughts below!

[jordan]

Thoughts on all the players who have made the merge
:


Michael Brady- I have chosen my side in the Robbie vs. Brady storyline...I hope Brady can get the upper hand and overcome this stigma placed upon him by an early mimiarie boot (Yes, Mike G is the true winner here). I have been very impressed with Brady allowing his paranoia to properly propel his game forward, something most players allow to derail them. I do think it will be hard for him to make the end game, but not impossible if he can overcome the Robbie hurdle.



Olivia- I have generally loved what Olivia has been bringing to this game. Would I have liked her to have chosen a different pecking order and loyalties on her original tribe, yes...but I can’t fault her for where it got her. I loved, loved, loved the work she did in her first swap tribe with Nikki, Kyle, and Willow...and to a lesser extent Angelica. But the second swap, is where it made it more difficult to get on board with everything Olivia was saying and doing. First off, she finds out Robbie lied to her about the idol and told others before her...and she still sees him as her number one. I know we’ve all been in games where we were blindly loyal to people we shouldn’t have...but I was still hoping Olivia would have a lightbulb moment. Second off, Olivia is worried about being targeted in the alpha woman role which is unfortunately a real stigma in these types of competitions. So she takes out another strong, independent female player, in Bridget?!? Bridget was who Olivia could have hid behind in merge...all eyes would be on Bridget. She says she tried to save Bridget, but earlier confessionals didn’t really care about her game. I do think she could have done more, would it have been risky, yes...but the reward of having Bridget still would have paid off so much better for her threat level in the long run...instead Olivia doubles down with Robbie. I could be wrong, but I don’t think he’s going to be the best alli for her in merge. Especially based on how they disagreed last round over the Jordan boot. I am glad that Olivia pushed to let this happen...but it just goes to show that she could have done more during the Bridget boot. (Yes, I’m a salty Bridget stan...but I still do wish for Olivia to do well in this game...but your loyalties might cost you).



Nikki- I feel that Nikki has so much potential to do well, but when her mind is already made up it’s really transparent. Either her facial expressions give it away...or if she is smiling big, her voice or lack of eye contact tells you everything you need to know. I think she’s got to go back to the Dylan make-up if she wants to fool anyone what she’s thinking in merge. I think she is going to have some of the loyalty issues that Olivia has, but towards Michael Brady. I can see him taking her back as a number and she thinking she’s higher on his loyalty list then she is. I also don’t think she has done the best job managing relationships in the second swap. Her main hope is that the Dylan’s really do come back together...but that’s as likely as a scenario with a tribe full of Dillons.



Angelica- She has actually exceeded my expectations for her social capabilities. She’s now at the part of the game where her blow-up with Rocky is less likely to hinder her performance in merge and now propel her closer to the end if people think they can beat her due to her less than finer moment. However, Angelica is still a very dynamic personality that draws a lot of attention and I do think, like Olivia, she made a mistake in letting Bridget go. She could have hidden behind another loud, outspoken female player into the merge, but will now have to hope that Robbie vs. Brady will take center stage and that she backs the right horse.



Kyle - Kyle is slick and he is on track to win this game. He charms the right people, he makes the right connections, and he hasn’t pulled out any wacky moves like some people predicted pre-season. Name one misstep Kyle has made so far in this game? Because I can’t find one yet. I think if anything, Kyle may think he has the closer relationship with M. Brady instead of Kaitlyn...but I don’t see this storyline being that important until the end game and I think Brady likely won’t be there to make it matter (Though I would love it). I also love Kyle’s commentary on the game.



Robbie- So I started this game loving what Robbie was giving us, rooting for him, and genuinely wanting him to succeed. I didn’t love that he wasn’t vibing with Kevin...but I understood it. He was the Godfather. He had the loyalties, he was calling the shots, he was threatening people disguised as giving out ‘advice’. But he started to lose me when he let Molly and Chris take out Niki. Then he wanted to throw the challenge to get out Sam, and I realized that power had gotten to Robbie and he was squandering his great position. He also finally came clean about the idol to his allies, but I had been praising him for keeping it a secret, so didn’t love that move...though strangely it might have helped his relationship with Chris. Then at second swap, Robbie declares he doesn’t want to target women (since he did that twice) and he wanted to see Bridget make merge. Now we were getting back on track...except, that’s not what happened. Robbie should have played the idol on Bridget in my opinion. He could have targeted anyone he wanted. He would have solidified some real trust with Bridget. Bridget would have remained a big target. The numbers between original Koror and Appari were too close to let Appari get a slight upper hand if that was already the narrative being expressed to him. Too many people know he has the idol and the power is dwindling. This was the time to use it. But Robbie was comfortable with the relationships he was building and let Bridget go and kept his idol...only to threaten to play it on Jordan next round! What the hell!? So bad...This doesn’t ultimately come to be, but the fact that he was entertaining it and testing the loyalty of Olivia does not bode well for his game. I’m now team Brady, Robbie.



Kaitlyn - She’s worried about people betraying her (Valid, since it has happened before) But I think the biggest threat to Kaitlyn’s game is the people she hasn’t met in the game yet...aka the entire Rarotonga tribe minus Nikki. She can put the social work in with the new people, but I don’t see them giving her a chance since they know how close she is to Brady. I see three scenarios for Kaitlyn: 1. Either Brady’s side wins the war and she sails to the end...2. Brady’s side loses the war and she isn’t seen as a threat and manages to hang on for the long game...or 3. She gets clipped early merge due to being an easy number of Brady’s to take out. What will it be?



Molly - She is so lucky to be at the merge based on how she played the swap...and I’m not entirely sure she is aware of it. Also not going to lie...kind of rolling my eyes that she actually gets to connect with her sequester people now. Though I suppose it will be interesting to see if she actually flips to work with them instead of Koror...but honestly, she’s so loyal to Koror I don’t see it happening...Plus Genki and Angelica may just decide to keep working with Olivia, Robbie and the rest of Koror. I’m open to Molly doing something great at the merge, but I predict the best we will get is her song inspired confessionals.



Willow - The last HAVOC woman standing! I’m happy she made merge after falling short in the last game she played. I do think she could have an easy road deep into the endgame or the endgame itself due to the perception of her as a passive, yet loyal player. However, I want Willow to play a winning game...so I am hoping she decides to play a little deceptive and take some more agency in this portion of the game. I think she has a lot of great options. She has met everyone in the game except Robbie, now it’s time to mastermind this thing! Go Willow!



Genki- I wish Genki’s cast photo captured his current look...though it’s probably strategy because he looks so much more innocent and trustworthy in his photo. Anyways, I think Genki is a pivotal piece in the Brady vs. Robbie war. He is likely to stay loyal to Robbie as the last BIPOC, plus Brady did leave him out of the Robert vote then they got swapped apart. I think Genki does a good job pretending to be out of the loop when people tell him information and I do think Genki is an underrated player in this game...but surely he can’t continue to play like this and get away with it. There are a lot of savvy players now and I think Genki’s best bet is to wait the war of Robbie and Brady out and then mad, dash sprint (AKA play a fast, hard game) to the end. People won’t expect it from him and he could get away with it.



Chris - I really wish they had lost the food eating challenge. If a Koror had to go during the second swap, I would have preferred it be Chris or Molly over Bridget due to how abysmal they played the swap portions of the game. Now Chris and Molly probably feel a bit vindicated with their decisions...when really they are both just lucky with out the challenges played out. Chris is plain toast right now and I want some whole wheat fancy toast with almond butter, hemp seeds, and honey...is that too much to ask for? (Also next game Chris plays, if he actually does everything he talks about in his prod chat, then that would be a fun game to watch...certainly some avocado toast with microgreens at the least….I think I got hungry at this part of my write-up)



Trey- I think Trey is in a great position. He’s got relationships with both his old Koror and most of the Aparri originals. I think it could get complicated for him to have to choose a side, ultimately what could have unfolded during the second swap if they had ever lost on Vanua. But he has been able to hold his cards still. I really hope that he makes Koror feel confident with the numbers, but ultimately sides with Brady...although that could get messy with where other crucial swings lie.



Prediction for Robbie vs. Brady allies



Robbie: Olivia, Chris, Molly, Genki, Angelica



Brady: Kaitlyn, Kyle, Nikki, Willow, Trey



I could see this being an even split...with Trey making people think he is with Robbie...but would he let it tie? Probably going to be less epic than this….but maybe this will be an early breakdown of divisions.

[Charity]

*we didn't have a round 9 thread, so I will include a couple updates in this write up as well.*

Not much happened round 9 - the only significant points were - Molly was 100% leaving if Vanua lost the challenge, Robbie really wanted Nikki gone, Olivia strong armed Robbie, and Robbie reacted very poorly to not getting his way. With that out of the way... let's move on to....


MERGE

Interesting players left here - I think no matter who wins, we are going to have a winner who gave it their all. Let's dive into how I think everyone will do with this group of people.

WARNING - I AM VERY CRITICAL IN THIS WRITE UP DONT BE OFFENDED IF I WROTE THIS ABOUT U... heck I'm probably going to trash who ends up eventually winning anyways so it's fine  

Angelica

Way more of a threat than people are assuming. Because she's OG Maraamu, people assume she doesnt have numbers; however, she is part of the "Dylans" alliance, which is Olivia/Nikki/Willow/Kyle/herself. Seems like a somewhat strong alliance, but I think everyone will get selfish in this alliance once a few "easier" people are booted. Angelica has built a strong relationship with each of these individuals, as well as Genki (and through extension Molly). I think she's never going to be viewed as a threat, and by extension she has a really good chance make it towards the endgame. Her problem would come if the Michael/Aparri dymanic wins out... if that's the case, she gets picked off by default.

Chris

Chris is in a horrible spot. He was on the bottom of Vanua - which I think he knows deep down but he keeps blaming his paranoia for these thoughts. He played too messy, made the wrong assumptions, and gave info to the wrong people. You'd assume he has Koror to run back to... nope he doesn't have that either. Chris made a terrible mistake in A. Trying to target Robbie in the first swap, because Robbie knows this and B. Telling Michael that Robbie has the idol... because Michael gave Robbie this bit of information and now Robbie is never going to trust Chris again. By default, Olivia doesn't trust Chris, and Trey doesn't trust Chris because of the Vanua dynamic. He's done for.. the question is, which round in the next 3 rounds is he going to be voted out? Watching him paranoid and running around is kind of fun though, ngl!

Genki

Genki is not viewed as an immediate threat, but he does have working relationships with Angelica, Michael/Kaitlyn to a degree, and most importantly Molly. Realistically, this SHOULD help him. The problem Genki is going to face is that if he's not careful, he's going to be picked off as a result of a big player trying to hurt someone else's numbers. Genki needs to do a bit more in these next few rounds to make sure he's knows as more than "Molly's ally" or "Angelica's ally," because sooner rather than later he's either going to lose his allies or he's going to be clipped in an attempt to weaken them. I think strategically, he NEEDS to get back in good with Kaitlyn/Michael, keep good with Molly/Angelica, and ride the middle for as long as possible. If he does this, he's going to make it pretty far, but I don't know if he will? I'm not predicting first merge boot, but I won't be shocked if he meets his fate early.

Kaitlyn

Starting to get Taylor from last season vibes. Kaitlyn is sweet, savvy, and easy to talk to. I think without Michael Brady in the game, Kaitlyn has a solid shot of making it very far in the game... maybe even making it to the end. She's not perceived as a threat, but the fact that people assume that she's close to MB means that she is in trouble. I am worried that she is going to get punished for Michael's "idol" that nobody found, she's going to get punished for being strong in challenges, and she's going to be punished for not having met a few key people in the swap. Already getting robbed vibes but hoping she proves me wrong  

Kyle

Kyle is realllly fun to watch, and on paper he should be in a good spot. He has the Dylans, OG Aparri, and even members of Koror who are like "wow I love Kyle!" the problem is... everybody knows that everybody loves Kyle. We see this archetype every season in orgs... there's the person who's SO OBVIOUSLY WINNING because they're aligned with the right people, are super likable, and have options... but just like in ORG past, Kyle is going to be picked off at 8th, 7th, or 6th place, because winners always go out in those spots. His good positioning is going to catch up to him, and he has a chance at proving me wrong if people implode (cough Robbie/Olivia/Michael), he just needs to somehow convince the right side that he's not the guy to cut. Not sure which side is the right side left. 

Michael

Literally everyone's so scared of him, especially the people who haven't met him. Time and time again Michael finds himself in these hard positions, but time and time again he somehow escapes. Michael is a capable and strong player, but I think that he's doomed unless he SOMEHOW gets his way these next few votes. Merge boots 1 & 2 dictate if MB makes it far or not, he can't afford to lose any numbers. Michael has a great relationship with Kaitlyn, Trey, Nikki, Kyle. He also has a working relationship with Willow and he's aware that he needs to rebuild with Genki. Michael.. for some reason however.. is convinced he can win Robbie over as his ride or die??? I get it. On paper, Robbie and Michael are unstoppable if they put their shit aside and team up, but Robbie is just too skeptical and paranoid for it to work. Michael can keep trying this angle if he wants, but he's already told Robbie too much and if he keeps doing it he's just going to bury his own game. I'm actually rooting for him to succeed though... which is weird because I rarely root for men LOL. 

Molly

Molly has a lot going for her - she's enthusiastic, has people who adore her, and isn't anyone's pick for the first vote (YET). Molly's problem, which I'll rarely ever see this as a problem, is her lack of experience. I don't believe Molly has awareness when it comes to the fact that people are lying to her (such as Trey, Willow, and Kaitlyn). She also comes off as too formal... she thinks her teacher approach is a strength, but she's been called out by others for this quality and I think it's a huge weakness. I also don't think Molly has had a taste of failure yet.. when that happens, you get a high and assume you're untouchable. Molly is going to lose numbers sooner than she expects, and I am curious to see if Molly has what it takes to recover from a loss like this just because I haven't seen it yet. Regardless though, Molly's downfall (or uprising) is going to be epic and I'm excited to see it. 

Nikki

Nikki has been really fun and I love her energy, but I don't think she realizes quite how many times she's been in trouble. She knows that Robbie said her name the round Bridget left, but I don't think she realizes that she was the vote until Olivia put her foot down and stopped it last second. She has so many relationships that are good for her, similar to Kyle, including Dylans and OG Aparri. Nikki is one of those "obvious threats" though who struggles to lay low. I think Nikki has a 0.1% chance at making the end UNLESS her jury management starts off poor and people see that as a benefit, but I would ADORE if Nikki proved me wrong because I love when strong women do well  

Olivia

Olivia has consistently delivered, having an amazing first swap performance (until slightly slipping at the end) and pushing/succeeding in the Jordan vote. I think on paper Olivia has an easy ride to the end. But point blank, she is waaaay too connected. If she decides she's going to keep all the Dylans and all the Korors strong... that brings her to what... final 9? She is really smart in realizing she needs to keep people outside of her circle safe so her circle feels like they have their own numbers, but I think the second Olivia pulls the trigger she becomes a huge threat. The reason why? Her actively flipping on someone makes it HER move... and people are going to be intimidated to sit with her moves at the end. I think Olivia can continue to pull this juggling act off for awhile, but the second it falls it's going to fall hard. Definitely a mid-mid/late merge boot if I had to guess. 

Robbie

He has all the tools he needs to be a great player!!! He has an idol, he's sooo charming, he has people falling on the sword trying to work with him, you'd think Robbie is a shoe in in this game... but he lets things get to his head, and I think Robbie is going to be the reason Robbie dies in this game. He blew up at Olivia last round for not saving JORDAN of all people... so imagine what he's going to do when he loses an actual number. He has a hardcore hate boner for Michael Brady, who is seriously considering working with him at this point. He's also too obviously liked by everyone. I think Robbie assumes that his skepticism towards everything is going to help him succeed, but I think if Robbie chilled out and stopped worrying about having control that he'd be a frontrunner. 

Trey

I feel like he's in a pretty good spot? Trey still has working relationships with both Koror (with the exception of not trusting Chris/Molly anymore), he has a working relationship with his Kaitlyn/Michael/Willow alliance, he also has a slight relationship with Kyle. He's got a lot going for him. I'm curious if people are going to go to stick their neck out for Trey though? Trey has the luxury of being able to lay low, but I wonder to what degree people will stick their neck out for Trey if something goes wrong for him. I also am excited to see if Trey is willing to push his agenda or if he's going to keep doing what works for him and lays low. I think he has the best odds at making it far... but my read may be totally off LOL! We will see.

Willow

Not an immediate threat, but I have no read on how well Willow is going to do. She has an in with Olivia/Kyle/Angelica, she also has an in with Michael/Kaitlyn/Kyle. Willow is not an aggressive player in any sense of the word, but she's also not in immediate danger. If these players decide that this is going to be a "compromise vote" type merge, then she is in trouble along with players like Kaitlyn, Genki, etc. If this is a "big targets are gonna go" type merge, however, Willow is making the end. I genuinely believe Willow's success will ride on how well her locked allies do. She's her own person that I love sm, but she's definitely not an aggressive player. 


Overall

I feel like the pattern I'm seeing in all of these players is that they're all convinced they have control, which cancels out and really puts none of them in control. Ironically, the only person who doesn't seem convinced they have any shot is Michael but that's just a personality trait at this point LOL. VERY weird dynamic. Their conversations are focused less on what is realistic and is more focused on what they want - it's going to be hard for anyone to fully get their way which is why I love two swaps. Excited to see how things play out

[currently reigning kilby]

ive been half seriously rooting against chris just because i hate when people get easy rides (because chris is very skilled at this game)

but I would KILL to see Chris get blindsided here but survive. Chris having to fight for it and really show what hes capable of when he has the information to burn these people could be fucking awesome. That is what I'm rooting for: I want Chris to be put on trial and fight the fire.

[Charity]

Nikki just figured out the full extent of how she was almost voted out last round - including the fact that Robbie's face lit up when he realized that Nikki was going to stay and how mad he was about the situation. She was going home LITERALLY until Angelica and Olivia shut Robbie down, which occurred during tribal. Angelica has told Nikki this, so now Angelica has locked Nikki in as a long term ally. I think this was really smart on Angelica's part. Olivia didn't tell Nikki because she didn't want to throw Robbie under the bus, but I think this is going to come back to bite her in the ass. It just serves as another example where Olivia is not telling the right people the right information. I'm curious to see where this goes!

[Charity]

Notes for tonight (the night before the merge vote)

[/font][li]Angelica & Nikki totally clocked the fact that Olivia & Robbie are trying to protect Koror - making obviously "strategic" comments like "Oh Chris will probably idol Molly." It's very clear that they don't want to vote out a Koror. They also noticed how Olivia is the least willing person to compromise and burn her individual connections. Olivia just sort of expects everybody else to burn their numbers... which considering Olivia has so many you'd assume she'd be smart and take out one that's lower on the pecking order. I don't think they flip on Olivia yet but I'm seeing the foundation of her being picked off mid-merge start to form.[/li][/ul]

• Koror is paranoid about the Aparri idol, which we all know doesn't exist. It's making a very mind-bending narrative. Robbie and Molly, now that Kaitlyn is immune, seem to want to try to put the vote on Willow, but make Aparri think it's them in order to flush an idol. They're convinced that they can get Angelica to burn Willow for this vote, but if I'm Angelica... I'm wondering why I have to be the one to burn my number when everyone sees me as a swing. Curious to see how she reacts to this situation when it eventually happens.

• Michael & Chris had a very weird call - They basically talked about how they know they're both screwed in this game (which is true, they ARE both screwed), acknowledged their lack of numbers (which is also somewhat true), and left it at that. I have no clue how Chris is going to handle this knowledge moving forward but I respect Michael for at least trying to shake things up.

[/font][li]Angelica/Genki both talked about their lack of commitment towards Trey, not minding if he were the vote for the round. Problem for them is that people aren't going to want to do Trey? Angelica also discussed not wanting to do Kyle while Genki doesn't want to do Michael. Angelica won't wanna do Olivia or Nikki as well, Genki won't want to do Robbie, and both won't want to do Willow. One of them is going to have to bend here, but ultimately if Koror keeps playing their cards so obviously I could see them trying to vote one of them out. The problem with this as well is that Molly is the only feasible Koror vote, and neither want Molly out. They're kind of stuck at this point and I'm excited to see who has to bend this round, and in return if the other will agree to bend next round.[/li]
[li]The aggressive power players this round are as follows - Robbie, Olivia, Nikki, Angelica, Michael (kind of.. he's trying).[/li]
[li]The low key power players for this round are - Genki, Kyle, Trey.[/li]
[li]Sitting ducks - Kaitlyn, Willow, Chris, Molly, also Michael to a degree.[/li]
[/ul]

[devon]

Oh so NOW Olivia cares about maintaining her original tribe numbers at merge

[Charity]

LAST UPDATE FOR THE ROUND - My guess is that everything explodes 1-2 hours before tribal, so I'll put those updates in a post for next round.

Willow caved and admitted to Michael/Kaitlyn that she told too much to Angelica. I think now Willow realizes that Angelica is not as connected to her as she wants. I'm not sure if caving now is enough to save her, but still an interesting development. 

Michael seems to realize that Robbie doesn't trust him as much as he'd want... so he's going to keep his cards close to his chest moving forward. Good call LOL!

Michael/Chris have entertained the idea of an Angelica vote... the fact that this hasn't leaked has me ?!?! So confusing! They also discussed the fact that they're on the bottom, which is 1000% right. They agree that Michael/Kaitlyn/Molly/Chris should be a thing. Do I think this will succeed? IDK! Do I want it to succeed? IDK! Is it their only hope in the game? Probably!

Olivia/Robbie are on the "save Koror at all costs" train by pushing a Willow vote. They believe that Genki should lie to Angelica about this part.. which Genki doesn't seem down for. Heck, he doesn't sound down for the whole plan in general! I see a world where he caves, but Robbie/Olivia are really hurting their long term games with this plan. I genuinely believe that people are starting to see how much they only care about their games, and the gameplay today has been fun to watch in the short term but is also going to kill them in the long term.

In hot water: Willow, Molly, Angelica (??), Trey (?? heard his name briefly as well)

[Charity]

LMAOOOOOOO OKAY LAST UPDATE but Genki just threw Koror under the bus to Angelica, Angelica is "testing" Koror members to see if they'll come clean and OMGGGGG THEYRE ALL FAILING AND LYING TO ANGELICA THIS IS SO BAD FOR THEM! Robbie/Olivia are tanking their games im literally laughing....

[Charity]

^^^^ I'm not laughing at them because I'm rooting against them per se, but watching the messiness is actually so funny because they're all strategically a HOT MESS!!!

[Charity]

WAIT CHRIS IS BEING GENUINE TO MICHAEL AND IS SPILLING A LOT LMFAO WHAT IS THIS PLOT TWIST?!?!? THOSE TWO WORKING OUT WOULD BE CRAZY


Okay done for the round....

[Charity]

Okay final post tribal thoughts... what just happened makes sense with everything I was seeing this round. Olivia was not playing her cards correctly this round AT ALL! That being said, never in a million YEARS did I believe that Olivia would be the one leaving this round. I am sad we lost such a great player... 100%... but that's not to say that this move didn't make me excited. I think a lot of people made GREAT moves by voting her out, and I am excited for the gameplay. I just hope the rest of the season continues to deliver.