Round 14/15

[Charity]

Thoughts can be posted below!

[Charity]

Quick update - Michael is literally lying to Angelica right, saying he has the idol when we all know he doesn't have it LMFAO!! This is wild he's trying to leverage it and everything.... "Oh Angelica I'd use it on you!" like huh?!?!? I've never seen a lie like this succeed so I'm curious to see where this goes !?!? Crying from laughter though...

[Charity]

Let me just say... another messy round ahead of us LOL! I feel I'm starting to see clear paths form for all 8 players, but most of them seem to not be capitalizing on it. I'm going to go into the paths I'm seeing for the final 8 as well as dive into their mindsets so far this round.

Willow/Angelica's train of thought with targeting Michael KIND OF makes sense... but what's their plan next round? That hasn't been made clear yet. They're either voting with Koror next round, allowing that tight 3 to get to F6, or they're banking on flipping Kaitlyn. Both of which are extremely risky. I actually don't see flipping Kaitlyn as the worst option, but I don't see any foundation work being laid out this round for that to happen. If that's the plan, they need to try and carry a conversation with Kaitlyn so she doesn't just side with the people she's bonded with more. I also think that Angelica/Willow are fixating so much on the Aparri idol and not enough on the Koror idol. Assuming Michael leaves this round, I do see a path for them but that path requires flipping Kaitlyn and pulling off a crazy blindside at 7 against Koror. I give their efforts a C+.

Michael/Kaitlyn seem to know they're in danger, but I genuinely believe that they need Koror in the next round if they want any shot at the end (which seems to be what they're thinking?). Assuming Michael/Kaitlyn survive, they need Robbie/Chris/Trey in the game so they can run to the others and build a 4 against them. Either that... or try to get Trey to flip on Chris/Robbie. Either works. Whichever combo of Angelica/Willow/Kyle stays in the game in this scenario would be dumb not to take a koror out at 7, but stranger things have happened? I stand by the mindset that keeping Koror in this long is wicked scary, but Michael especially doesn't have many other paths. Michael seems to be pushing an Angelica/Willow vote, and I think this is his only hope so credit to him for seeing this!! Angelica has a blind blood lust for Michael, and I think she'd throw logic to the wind in a F7 scenario and not work with him. The only Koror that makes sense for Michael's game to be voted out at this point is Robbie, because Robbie's blood lust for Michael has started to grow x50 this round. Plus... Robbie would 10000% idol Michael out. So this is probably the second best move for him at this point. In terms of Kaitlyn's game... she needs Michael to leave either this round or next round, then she needs to rebound and try to go to the end with the other girls. If she does this, she could win.

Kyle only needs to prioritize one thing, and that's keeping as many threats in for as long as possible!!! In an ideal world, Trey and then one of the girls leave back to back. He then teams up with the other girls, and leads a crusade against Robbie, Michael, and Chris, and wins at FTC. I believe that Kyle has the hardest argument against voting out Chris, because Kyle is also a threat on a similar level, but it's really one of his only hopes at even making the end so he needs to try. The only alternative is to take out all the girls and Trey and make the end with some combo of Chris/Michael/Trey, but that's both extremely unlikely and it's a scenario that leads to Kyle likely losing. Similar to Michael, Kyle realistically only has 1 or maybe 2 paths to make the end.

Trey needs to keep Koror as well as Michael/Kaitlyn in the game until F7, so Trey benefits the most from an Angelica/Willow/Kyle boot. Honestly, Angelica leaving probably benefits Trey the most because Robbie is pretty likely to work with Angelica at 7 all the way until the end. Taking out Angelica gives Robbie no other options and slim margin to flip on him. At 7... I think Trey needs to snip either Chris/Robbie, then at 6 I think Trey needs to snip Michael. Then he/Willow/Kaitlyn team up against the remaining players and Trey has a solid argument to win.

Robbie largely benefits from a Willow vote this round, however, I'm not sure Robbie realizes this. If Angelica gets in Robbie's head about how Michael needs to leave, I see Robbie getting picked off at 6-4. The end of this game is going to be a "big threat" massacre, so Robbie needs to keep the "big threats" in for 1 more round. Hypothetically if Willow were to leave this round, I think Robbie needs to let Trey go the next round. I say this because I genuinely think Trey is going to take Robbie out prior to FTC in an attempt to scoop up Koror jury votes. Robbie needs to snipe Chris/Michael out back to back right before the end because they have the most solid arguments at FTC. Robbie does have slightly more options than Kyle/Michael have, I am just curious if Robbie gets thirsty for blood too soon or if he's able to put his paranoia aside and not create a scenario where "smaller threats" team up against him and pick him off (aka Willow/Kaitlyn/Angelica/Trey). 
****(EDITING THIS POST TO SAY ROBBIE NOW ALSO BENEFITS FROM A MB VOTE BECAUSE ROBBIE HAS MADE MB MAD LMFAO!)****

Chris gets the most praise this round, because he has approached every single vote since F11 with intelligence and thought. Chris isn't thinking big threat vs small threat, Chris is thinking about which votes put him at a numbers advantage vs disadvantage in the following rounds. Chris understands the concern of having 3 Koror at F7, and he knows this puts him at a 33% chance at being the vote next round. Because of this, Chris needs to vote out either Angelica/Willow this round so he can continue to form an argument against the Trey/Kaitlyn/Michael dynamic next round. Chris IS already laying foundations for this dynamic being a threat, and for his game it doesn't really matter which leaves at 7 because he still has multiple people he can paint as a target in front of him. The write up for Chris is the most broad because Chris has the most options, I hope people don't catch onto his game.


Dynamic I'm seeing for this vote - Michael/Kaitlyn want Angelica/Willow out, Willow/Angelica want Michael out, Kyle wants Trey out but needs to pick a side, Koror needs to set themselves up not to be massacred next round.


For real though... the fact that people aren't concerned with flushing the Koror idol out is wild. Letting the Korors get to 7 with an idol leaves the possibility of them idoling correctly and having 3 at final 6. Granted everyone doesn't have the knowledge we have, even risking the shot of them getting to 6 is such bad gameplay! You can assume they're going to flip on each other, but how can they know this with 1000% certainty? All in all, loving the unpredictability of this merge.

[Charity]

UPDATE: Michael/Kyle are making an "idol bluff" plan where if the vote looks like it's going to be Michael, he announces he's going to flip a coin and play the idol on either him/Kaitlyn and Kyle can signal to Angelica/Willow to switch their vote to Trey. This is 1000% a hail mary plan that benefits both Michael/Kyle if it does get to this point... I'm curious to see if it's actually going to be needed or not. Michael also knows that Robbie/Angelica were giving each other details from their calls with Michael, because Angelica told Kyle and Kyle told Michael. This means Michael no longer trusts Robbie.

Angelica/Willow plan on trying to bluff to Michael all day to make him feel safe... but I doubt that works. I want to see where Chris fits into all of this, because everybody sees his positioning as flexible. Will update again later today on what I feel like is going to happen.

[Charity]

Update Part 2


-Chris/Trey seem to want to take Willow out this round... which is honestly the best move for both of them.

-Kyle seems to want Trey but there's no way that gains traction. Robbie worries that Kyle/Michael are still close, when I think Kyle now views Michael as a shield as opposed to a #1.

-Robbie has made it abundantly clear that he does not trust Michael, spreading information about Michael to everyone. Unfortunately for Robbie, people are loose lipped and Michael has figured this out. Now Michael wants Robbie's head on a platter.

-Robbie seems to want Kyle out in an ideal world? But really has no way to swing it.

-Willow/Angelica are still fixated on taking Michael out, but they feel like Trey is in the best position.

-Kaitlyn is actually sitting kind of pretty as a non-target? Knowing this game though she'll be the target in an hour.

[currently reigning kilby]

I can't believe I want Michael to win

But I adore how he's playing this. Baller moves left and right

#shabop

[currently reigning kilby]

Like it takes a tremendous amount of skill and bravery to pull off what he's even attempting!

Even if it doesn't work player of the season IMO

[Charity]

Update Part 3

Trey/Chris seem to be catching onto Robbie's antics. Robbie has so relentless this round when it comes to campaigning against Michael, and Chris/Trey seem irritated at this push because they feel like Robbie only cares about himself. Robbie is trying so hard to get his way, and in his ideal world Michael leaves this round so he can have Angelica/Willow/Trey/Chris all to himself. The problem is that this ONLY benefits Robbie and Trey/Chris see this. Robbie is pushing his allies away because he's soooo focused on taking out the "big threats" to the point where it's making them feel like he's going to cut them too. I will not be surprised if Chris/Trey cut Robbie at 6 or 5 at this rate.

[Charity]

NOTE - Kaitlyn/Angelica are being slept on by everyoneeeeeeee.... the players in the game think there's NO shot at them winning, but they both have something to offer?!?! Angelica has been a straight shooter who is strong with her opinions and Kaitlyn has been a kind-hearted challenge beast who's smarter than people give her credit for. I think both are more than capable of pulling off some fun moves to make the end. Here's a quick copy/paste from the VL chat!

Charity, 7:05 PM
I think the F3 is going to be Angelica/Kaitlyn/whichever guy has the strongest endgame


Jenny, 7:05 PM
And the man will win ugh


Christen, 7:05 PM
I hope this isn’t a boys game though where the girls have no chance....


Jenny, 7:05 PM
The ones left are all really strong tho

I dunno tho it could change

Charity, 7:06 PM
Kaitlyn has a shot if she pulls stuff off without Michael
People are bitter at Angelica (though she could have an argument against certain people)

Jenny, 7:06 PM
Angelica has a rat floater game and could win with a bitter jury

If she makes a move that helps her


Ryan, 7:06 PM
Angelica’s a talker tho

Charity, 7:06 PM
The jury call last night was bitter at Angelica

Ryan, 7:06 PM
So she could sell a game next to the right people


Christen, 7:06 PM
It’s because women who are threats are 10 times more intimidating than men who are threats so the female equivalents of Chris/Michaels get taken out


Jenny, 7:06 PM
I do think if she gets herself with people who burned others worse the early jury will be like "well you got yourself there"

I dunno

It's hard to imagine the combo tho

Charity, 7:07 PM
Angelica could win if she's not there with Michael or Chris imo

??

Jenny, 7:07 PM
Whoever of Michael or Chris gets to the end wins

For sure

7:07 PM
Michael/Chris beat anyone
Then everyone else has equal shot

Jenny, 7:07 PM
Trey/Robbie/Angelica is an interesting F3

Or swap Kyle in there for someone

Maybe even Kaitlyn if she cuts Michael

Charity, 7:08 PM
I'm not gonna rule the girls out even though the jury isn't high on them
Angelica/Kaitlyn aren't 0 substance players
Kaitlyn is sweet and a challenge beast, Angelica is a straight shooter

Jenny, 7:09 PM
I do think the jury is like... girl power but the ones that are left they wanna see them make the move

Charity, 7:09 PM
Yeah I mean like any other game, the final rounds will make or break winners/losers

A female winner would be so fun

[Charity]

ROUND 15 STARTS

---

My main update for the round... it looks like I've severely underestimated Angelica's flexibility in this game. She just had a call with Michael where they discussed taking a Koror out, Angelica immediately jumps on a call with Kyle... and she says the exact same thing about how a Koror NEEDS to go. This means that Angelica is 100% with her intentions, and honestly I think a Koror going is right for everyone's game. I think Kaitlyn/Michael will also go down this path and take a Koror out... but here's the issue I see coming up this round - 

I am worried that someone is going to try to pull Chris in. I'm not sure if it's going to be Michael/Kaitlyn or Angelica/Kyle, but I'm worried that SOMEBODY is going to try to pull in Chris. If this happens, Chris has no incentive to keep this secret. Chris will tell Robbie 1000% if a Koror is going, and then he will use this information to idol out whoever he wants to leave (which I assume is Kaitlyn). If they are going to go through with this plan to take Koror out, it NEEDS to stay secret and they need to put the acting job of their lives on.

Chris is going to want to take Kaitlyn out because Kaitlyn is strong in challenges... but honestly this vote ONLY benefits Chris. I believe Robbie needs Michael out this round and I think Robbie is going to be fed up if he continues to not get his way. Kyle/Angelica/Michael also don't benefit from Kaitlyn leaving. Chris will try, but I think Chris's power slips this round if he pushes too hard to save Robbie/Trey.

[currently reigning kilby]

CHRIS IF U TOUCH KAITLIN I STG

but also whY DO YOU WANT TO GO TO THE END WITH THE BIG THREATS?

[Charity]

Okay - so it looks like my prediction from last night still stands. It looks like Trey is getting majority of the votes, with him getting votes from Michael/Angelica/Kaitlyn/Kyle. Honestly, this plan is the best plan for all 4 of these players. Michael/Kaitlyn are able to take out a Koror and not risk getting idol'd out by Robbie, and Angelica/Kyle take out an individual who is not going to work with them. The best part about this plan is that the 4 have accurately pinpointed the idol being in Robbie's hands, and they're making Robbie the decoy vote so he flushes his idol. There's also the Angelica decoy vote happening right now, but I don't think anyone believes she could leave. Honestly, if Robbie wastes his idol here then I'm 90% sure an Aparri wins the game, with the other 10% being the case if Chris wins out and pitches a solid underdog story. I'm a little mindblown that Koror hasn't clocked that the other 4 HAVE to team up here, and even if they have a sneaking suspicion I'm shocked they don't see that Trey is leaving. I think they're overestimating Trey's relationship with Michael/Kaitlyn. So as a fan of made up statistics, here's what I'm predicting -

95% Trey leaves
5% literally anyone else
___________________
75% Robbie wastes his idol
24.8% Robbie is wise enough to save it
0.2% Robbie makes the right move and plays the idol on Trey.


I'm also kind of excited to see how Chris rebounds from this? I think Chris got his way so much these last few votes that he's gotten used to the power, but I think this vote is going to snap him back into reality so he can see that people are playing better than anticipated. NO clue how Robbie reacts, I think Robbie will go on the defense and fight for his life if this vote goes the way I think it's going to go.