Round 1

[daniel]

Please post your thoughts on the first round below! 

[currently reigning kilby]

i feel like this twist may make people more apprehensive about making out-of-the-ordinary moves that have risk?

You don't want to line up your numbers for a blindside just to have that person still alive to tell the tale. I think I am a person more inclined to do wacky backstabs, but I don't think even I would try some stuff with this twist. I honestly feel like old-school slow players are going to dominate this season and this will really punish people trying to be more duplicitous.

like omg this chris is MADE for a player like chris LOL. I really think he's going to steamroll this shit (VOTE HIM OUT IF YOU'RE LITERALLY ANYONE ELSE IN THIS GAME BEFORE ITS TOO LATE)

[currently reigning kilby]

I AM KAITLYNS NUMBER ONE FAN. I love her so much and think she is going to be here for the long haul. Logan is just as fun as I expected.


Robert I really think Robert is a special level of charismatic. I think this twist plays against his strengths, but hes so gosh darn lovable I think he might do just okay and this tribe seems like a good mix for him

[currently reigning kilby]

chris in his confessional said "i want to work with the newbie nerdy girl" and i think ive talked to him too much about my game theory!!!

get your own gimmick CHRISTOPHER

[currently reigning kilby]

" also they're already saying Chris will be loyal because he won't have many options due to being "awkward""

LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL

[currently reigning kilby]

[Charity]

NIGHT 1 -

Maraamu -
Not the most game talk happened last night. Robert and Angelica are 1000% working together, as they were the only call to happen last night. They will likely try to work with Rocky and Joe? People seem to like Willow so far... and Niki is giving off very good "add me to the alliance" vibes. Early N1 prediction is that Genki and Gabby will be on the bottom of this tribe, but hoping this changes.

Koror -
Jess is absolutely insane!!! She added Trey/Robbie to a call and basically said "okay let's decide our 5" well. Trey definitely seemed to go along with it but Robbie just kind of smile and nodded the whole time. After this Robbie/Trey called and said Jess is playing hard but they're not sure if she'll be the first boot cause they like her. My early round 1 prediction is that Robbie has total control over which dynamic wins... Robbie is somebody everybody has already said they loved. I see Molly/Chris clicking in the coming days, which could form a good opposition. No clue what the majority alliance will be.

Aparri-
This tribe is going to be a M E S S! Nikki made an alliance with Logan and Kaitlyn, and they all seem to totally dig being together. Kaitlyn LOVES Logan and I'm sure Logan is going to feel the same way. Nikki is playing way more aggressively than I anticipated but I'm loving watching her. The L/K/N alliance wants to pull in Kyle as a 4th, and they're "deciding" between Brady and Jordan as a 5th. The PROBLEM with this is Kyle seems convinced that Logan is GOING to be the 1st boot and he doesn't trust him at all. I am excited to see what happens... early prediction is that it's going to be Logan vs the other men with the women as the swing votes. Praying for Suzi and Sam to LIVE.

[atanveer]

Logan and Nikki are my favs

Samantha and Gabby lets gooo

[Charity]

NOTES FOR DAY 2 (will keep editing and adding to throughout the night)-

Koror -

Lots of calls happening - Everyone calling everyone. Can't keep up LOL!

Robbie remains a common denominator that everyone likes. He is LITERALLY in the best spot. Love that for him

Kevin wants to leave Olivia/Chris out (Though info below might change this)

Chris likes Molly. Olivia likes Robbie. They have both made a point of saying these things in their prod chats.

Olivia loves Molly after having a call with her. She also thinks Bridget is sweet. She has also given Chris/Robbie crucial idol info... I think Robbie will find it first.

Chris pushing a 5 - Robbie/Kevin/Olivia/Molly/himself. Molly is on board with this idea. Olivia is on board with this idea. I would not be surprised if Jess is the first boot on this tribe despite her efforts N1.

Molly is feeling very optimistic with her scenario in this game, so is Chris. There is comfort in knowing that everyone is on board for the 5.



Aparri

Suzi is sketched out by Michael, and told Logan this.

Michael and Kyle made a F2. Logan and Kaitlyn have a F2.

Logan and Kyle have a F2. Logan likes Kyle but I don’t think this is mutual.

Logan has vaguely mentioned Sam, Nikki, or Michael being potential votes. Michael is more scary and Sam is more quiet. Nikki he is intimidated by. (Info below changes his tune a bit)

Suzi/Kyle established liking each other on call.

Kaitlyn seems to be in a good spot, nobody has even teased targeting her. She’d target Jordan or Suzi if she had her choice. She now likes Sam/Michael on top of her clear alliance with Logan.

Suzi wants the women to work together. Not sure how she can pull this off?

Logan/Michael FINALLY called after not being sure about each other proposed a 4 with Kyle, Kaitlyn, and themselves. Wonders how genuine they’re being with each other? Imagine if they just played each other into an alliance. UPDATE - They’re going to go along with it.

Kyle/Michael discussed how shady Logan is being, and they want to take time to figure out if they should play along with Logan or cut him. They love Kaitlyn and Sam, but acknowledge that Kaitlyn and Logan are close.

Logan/Michael/Kaitlyn/Kyle alliance formed. General "we need to stick together" chit chat.



Maraamu

Willow likes Robert, Angelica, and Niki.

Angelica and Robert have a F2.

Angelica/Robert are the common denominators that everyone likes. They are running the tribe easily.

Gabby loves Rocky. Is talking to people individually but nobody has talked about working with her. I think Gabby could be a default vote.

Niki/Robert discuss forming an alliance to establish an early majority. They want it to be Rob, Niki, Angelica, Willow.

Alliance mentioned above has officially formed. The majority on this tribe will be clear cut. I don't see plans deviating with this tribe.

Challenge took place - Everyone is feeling negatively about their performance. Joe was less talkative so Niki threw that out to Angelica as a perfect excuse to vote someone out.

Genki/Robert discussed forming a trio chat with Angelica.. that's happening soon.

[currently reigning kilby]

So like Bridget/jess are so far on the bottom they have almost no path to survival right?

Good job to the others. I know I've been half jokingly rooting against Chris, but if they go to 3 tribals he could be in trouble right? He really doesn't have this tribe locked down as I thought he would..Robbie/Kevin/molly/Olivia all seem to be in much better spots than Chris is currently. Very impressed with Robbie/kevin/molly. They are in their first games I believe and really matching the pace properly. Especially Robbie. This burgeoning Olivia/Robbie bond seems important long term

[currently reigning kilby]

I hope Logan can win the Logan/Michael war. I think that's possible- he certainly has influence over Kaitlyn who will be a crucial piece in the puzzle of this tribe I think. The other thing I love here is that Logan is already aware that Michael is putting in work against him. That speaks highly to Logan's ability to connect with people. If this is the second game I watch where Michael Brady deathtunnels a newbie and dies for it I would laugh. What a boring way to enter a game!!! 

Suzi seems like a total disaster LOL. Like, this is awful play right? Her only path to not being voted out is that JBAld is being a weirdo on all these calls I'm watching? He's not that off-putting usually I don't know what's going on but his social play is like...cringe here?


I like this tribe a lot because it really is your #teamtrainwreck. Kaitlyn and Kyle are the only ones who have a chance of being like, regular CP characters that don't go into cartoon mode. Logan maybe if he wins this war with Michael quick, but he's probably always going to be generically evil and chaotic. Logan is just so much fun lol.


Idk this is my fav tribe I hope Michael or Jordan die and the craziness is preserved. 
#hurricanekogan. I like that Kaitlyn is willing to just go along with the insanity ahahahaha

[currently reigning kilby]

Robert running his tribe as he should be !!! We love it. I think he got a litttttleeeeee bit of an easy draw, but he's doing a lot with what he's been given. He knows like 3 people on his tribe (I do think they'd align anyway, tbh, Robert is a charisma machine) and has really worked himself into just being the only one who matters in this tribe. This is the style of play I enjoy the most because it takes the most skill. I don't think any bonds other than their relation to Robert matters in this tribe.

[currently reigning kilby]

Haaaaaate this Michael kyle alliance that's forming. Nothing is worse than when the two ORGers just align because they have both played games before!!!!!

Please newbies crush these two snoozebots!!!

[Charity]

Koror

Okay so Robbie just found the idol!! The power player for Koror just... keeps being powerful? So Robbie has his 5 brewing with Olivia/Chris/Kevin/Molly, and he sees Trey as a good back pocket player. This means Bridget or Jess die first. MAY be a hot take, but I hope Jess dies first because Bridget is newer Olivia and Chris are struggling with the idol, but nobody else seems to be cracking it across all three tribes. I think this tribe is full of a lot of really good social players and it's going to be hard to lose anyone. Power rankings are as follows -

Robbie
Molly
Olivia
Chris
Kevin
Trey
Bridget
Jess

Maraamu

Robert is absolutely dominating this tribe by a mile, with Angelica as a solid second in command. They have a 4 with Niki/Willow and have a 3 with Genki. Rocky gave the challenge last night his absolute all, so I think it's safe to say he'd be safe. This leaves Joe/Gabby on the bottom. Niki and Angelica have mentioned that Joe is in hot water, due to him not being very talkative during the challenge while everyone else was cheering for/encouraging each other. Very straight forward tribe dynamic overall. Power rankings are as follows -

Robert
Angelica
Niki
Willow
Genki
Rocky
Gabby
Joe


Aparri -

Kaitlyn is literally the player everyone wants to work with. Nobody thinks she's shady. Her #1 at this point is Logan, who realistically should be kept around as a meat shield.. Kyle/Michael are the duo who opposes of this though. They are all in a 4 together, but I'll be interested to see if/when Michael/Kyle jump ship because they do not trust Logan at all. Logan/Kaitlyn also have the alliance with Nikki, but Logan does not trust Nikki at all. Michael/Kyle trust Sam, so I'd say Sam is doing a reallly good job rebuilding trust with people (Kaitlyn also likes Sam) so that leaves Suzi/Jordan on the outs. Suzi is going to play more aggressively than Jordan so we'll see if that helps her or not. Power Rankings are as follows -

Kaitlyn
Kyle
Michael/Logan tied
Sam
Nikki
Suzi
Jordan

[sid]

Koror

I've mostly been watching Koror so I'll post my thoughts on that and post about the other tribes if I get time to catch up. 

Trey - I'm a very proud mama watching him play. If I had to rank his standings I'd put him solidly middle of the pack. He has a great pulse on what's going on at the moment and his reads of people are mostly accurate. It's going to be important going forward that he keeps his options open at swap/merge. He's 4th/5th/6th on most people's rankings of importance which will likely get him through to swap. I think he is being a bit too guarded and people are catching on to that fact. Additionally, the pace of Koror is absolutely insane, I think he thinks he's doing enough but honestly this tribe is hyper speed. 

Robbie - Robbie has set himself up super well. I think he's most people's number 1/2/3. I'd say he's in the second best spot on the tribe. I think he's going to thrive in the swap because his gameplay has been super solid and he has a calming demeanor. 

Kevin - I haven't seen much in the way of confessionals from him but it seems like he's ranked pretty highly by the other tribe members. The five person alliance of Kevin, Robbie, Chris, Olivia and Molly seems to be serving him well. I think his biggest issue right now is coming off as ingenuine to other players but overall he's set himself up super well. 

Olivia - I think Olivia is also in a good spot most people seem to vibe well with her. I think her biggest issue moving forward is going to be putting too much trust in Robbie as he doesn't see her as his ride or die. If she keeps her options open and isn't too trusting of Robbie I think she'll probably make merge. 

Molly - If I had to pick one person best positioned it'd either be Robbie or Molly with a slight edge towards Molly. She is everybody's number one and not many people seem to be picking up on that fact other than Trey. I'm not sure how many formal alliances she has but her social game is either going to have her win this game or get a late jury vote out for having too strong a chance of winning. She's an absolute queen and watching her play is beautiful. 

Chris - Chris is one hundred percent being underestimated by the new players. I think he's on the higher end of middle on this tribe. It's definitely not the Chris show in Koror it's the Molly/Robbie show. He'll likely make it to swap/merge and beyond but I don't think he's anybody's number one. 

Jess - She's come off as a little too aggressive in conversations. I think this has a lot to do with the fact she was pretty drunk night one. Sloppy sloppy play with Trey and Robbie and she's likely going to be first or second boot. I think a chance of second boot is higher than first boot because she has this "alliance" with Trey and Robbie which might be able to keep her safe one week, (because I picked her for this week's time bomb draft.) I don't think there's any chance of survival here unless Koror wins the majority of competitions and she backstabs her original tribe. 

Bridget - She hasn't clicked with anybody on the tribe. I'm not sure what it is but it's likely going to be her second first boot in a row. Robbie put it best when he said she's misunderstood. There's no hope of survival here, Koror needs to win every competition up until swap for her to have any chance of making it to merge.